By Shao Yishu and Duan Ting

邵逸舒  段  挺

The potential ownership of Greenland has become one of the focal points of divergence between the US and Europe in recent days. The European Commission recently published its draft of the long-term budget, which proposed to more than double its financial support for Greenland, raising from EUR 225 million in 2021-2027 to EUR 530 million in 2028-2034. The funding will be used for cooperation between the EU and the island in critical raw materials and energy. According to some analysts, it represents the latest move of the EU in the game over Greenland with the US, and reveals its strategic intent of supporting its member states to safeguard their own stability and preserve Europe's overall security and development interests.

近期以來(lái)，格陵蘭島的歸屬走向成為美歐矛盾的焦點(diǎn)之一。歐盟委員會(huì)日前發(fā)布聯(lián)合長(zhǎng)期預(yù)算草案，擬對(duì)格陵蘭島的撥款增加一倍以上，從2021至2027年間的2.25億歐元提升到2028至2034年間的5.3億歐元，用于歐盟與該島在關(guān)鍵原材料和能源方面的合作。分析人士認(rèn)為，歐盟此舉是圍繞格陵蘭島與美國(guó)展開(kāi)博弈的最新舉措，展現(xiàn)了支持成員國(guó)維護(hù)自身穩(wěn)定和維護(hù)歐洲整體安全與發(fā)展利益的戰(zhàn)略意圖。

Greenland, as an autonomous territory of Denmark, is located at the strategic junction connecting the Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic Ocean. However, the US has long stationed troops and operated military bases there since World War II, exerting de facto influence over the security and military control of the island. Previously, the Trump administration, citing national security concerns, repeatedly threatened that use of force would not be ruled out for the purpose of seizing control of Greenland and asked the Department of Defense to plan for the transfer of the area of responsibility of the island from the US European Command to the US Northern Command. Senior US government officials, including US Vice President JD Vance, inspected the island to create permissive environments. According to recent Danish media reports, there were frequent travels by several Americans between the US and Greenland, attempting to strengthen Greenland’s affiliation with the US through ways including establishing private networks and infiltrating the local society. The series of steps taken by the US against Greenland has fueled the rise of separatist sentiments in Greenland, imposing significant pressure on Denmark and the EU.

格陵蘭島地處大西洋與北冰洋戰(zhàn)略要沖，是丹麥自治領(lǐng)地。但美國(guó)自二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)長(zhǎng)期在此駐軍并建有軍事基地，對(duì)該島的安全和軍事控制擁有實(shí)質(zhì)性影響力。此前，特朗普政府以國(guó)家安全為由，多次揚(yáng)言不排除使用武力控制格陵蘭島，并要求國(guó)防部籌劃將該島從美軍歐洲司令部防區(qū)劃歸北方司令部。包括美國(guó)副總統(tǒng)萬(wàn)斯在內(nèi)的多位政府高級(jí)官員先后到該島“踩點(diǎn)”造勢(shì)。近期丹麥媒體報(bào)道稱(chēng)，有多名美國(guó)人頻繁往返美國(guó)和格陵蘭島，試圖通過(guò)建立私人網(wǎng)絡(luò)、滲透當(dāng)?shù)厣鐣?huì)等方式，推動(dòng)格陵蘭島對(duì)美國(guó)的依附。美國(guó)覬覦格陵蘭島的一系列舉動(dòng)，刺激了格陵蘭島分離主義抬頭，給丹麥及歐盟造成巨大壓力。

Denmark and the EU, with themselves deeply embroiled in security quagmires, seek to maintain stable relations with the US through engagement on the one hand, and accelerate deployment of countermeasures to deny the intention of the US on the other hand. The relevant measures taken by the EU are as follows.

深陷安全困境的丹麥和歐盟，一邊與美國(guó)周旋，力圖穩(wěn)住美歐關(guān)系，一邊加緊布局反制，爭(zhēng)取不讓美國(guó)得手。

First, it enhances the influence on Greenland and contains the development of the emerging trend of exiting the EU. Despite its repeated statements of support for Denmark in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity, the EU is unable to provide practical support at the security and military level. Therefore, the EU intends to demonstrate its attention to Greenland's development by significantly increasing financial aid and expanding investments in energy, critical minerals, informatization, education and other fields, aiming to pacify the Greenlanders and mitigate their long-standing dissatisfaction with the EU. At the same time, it also contributes to increasing the difficulty and cost for the US to incite separatist tendencies on the island, thereby resisting the influence and infiltration exerted by the US.

首先，增強(qiáng)對(duì)格陵蘭島影響，遏制其“脫歐”態(tài)勢(shì)發(fā)展。盡管歐盟多次表態(tài)支持丹麥捍衛(wèi)主權(quán)和領(lǐng)土完整，卻無(wú)力在安全與軍事層面給予實(shí)際支持。于是，歐盟有意通過(guò)大幅增加財(cái)政撥款，強(qiáng)化對(duì)能源、關(guān)鍵礦產(chǎn)、信息化、教育等方面的投入，彰顯對(duì)其發(fā)展的重視，以此安撫格陵蘭人，減少長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)其對(duì)歐盟的不滿(mǎn)。同時(shí)，這也有助于增加美國(guó)煽動(dòng)島內(nèi)分離傾向的難度和成本，抵制美國(guó)對(duì)該島的影響滲透。

Second, it seeks to seize the right to explore strategic resources and reduce dependence on external countries. Greenland has rich reserves of oil, gas and minerals. Among the 34 critical raw materials in the list prescribed by the EU, 25 types have been discovered and proven in Greenland. Previously, both the EU and the US have expressed investment intentions regarding resource exploitation in Greenland. This May, Greenland's minister for business and mineral resources publicly called on the US and Europe to increase investment in Greenland's mining industry. To reduce the risk of relying on external sources for strategic resources, the EU subsequently reached two mineral investment agreements with Greenland, with energy and critical minerals exploitation prioritized in the funding proposal, reflecting the urgency of taking action ahead of the US.

其次，搶占戰(zhàn)略資源開(kāi)發(fā)權(quán)，降低對(duì)外依賴(lài)度。格陵蘭島油氣資源和礦產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)備豐富，在歐盟確定的34種關(guān)鍵原材料清單中，有25個(gè)種類(lèi)已在格陵蘭島探明發(fā)現(xiàn)。此前，歐盟和美國(guó)均多次就格陵蘭島資源開(kāi)發(fā)表達(dá)投資意向。今年5月，格陵蘭商業(yè)和礦產(chǎn)資源部長(zhǎng)公開(kāi)呼吁美歐加大對(duì)其采礦業(yè)投資。為降低戰(zhàn)略資源對(duì)外依賴(lài)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，歐盟之后便與格陵蘭島達(dá)成兩項(xiàng)礦產(chǎn)投資協(xié)議，并在此次撥款提案中將能源和關(guān)鍵礦產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)作為重點(diǎn)，折射出搶先于美國(guó)出手的緊迫感。

Third, it highlights the importance of overseas territories and the intention of preventing the shrinkage of strategic interests. Currently, 13 Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs) are associated with the EU, with Greenland being one of these OCTs that have been regarded by the EU as an important extension of its strategic interests for a long time. The EU's increased investment in Greenland has sent a political signal that the island is of increasing strategic importance to the EU. For the EU, with climate warming, the Arctic region will become a potential "critical battlefield" in the future. Greenland, with its unique geographical location and rich resource reserves, will play a key role in "anchoring" the Arctic and ensuring the supply of critical raw materials.

再次，彰顯域外領(lǐng)土重要性，預(yù)防戰(zhàn)略利益縮水。目前，歐盟共有包括格陵蘭島在內(nèi)的13處域外領(lǐng)土。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，這些域外領(lǐng)土被歐盟視為自身戰(zhàn)略利益向外延伸的重要觸角。此次歐盟加大對(duì)格陵蘭島投入釋放了一個(gè)政治信號(hào)——該島的戰(zhàn)略重要性正在不斷增長(zhǎng)。對(duì)歐盟而言，隨著氣候變暖，北極地區(qū)未來(lái)將成為“關(guān)鍵戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)”，而格陵蘭島憑借獨(dú)特的地理位置和資源儲(chǔ)備，將在“錨定”北極以及確保關(guān)鍵原材料供應(yīng)方面發(fā)揮重要作用。

Next, the draft budget will come into effect after unanimous agreement by the EU member states and approval by the European Parliament. Given the rise of right-wing political parties in Europe and the growing calls for prioritizing national interests, the EU's significant increase in funding for Greenland may encounter obstruction from certain member states. Furthermore, the Trump administration possibly regards the EU "throwing money" at Greenland as a challenge "against the US". Thus, there is no reason to deny that the US will once again suppress and retaliate against the EU and related countries on the pretext of national security. Then the game between the US and Europe over the island will undoubtedly intensify further.

下一步，預(yù)算草案需要經(jīng)過(guò)歐盟成員國(guó)一致同意，并獲得歐洲議會(huì)通過(guò)才能生效?？紤]到歐洲右翼政黨崛起和要求優(yōu)先考慮本國(guó)利益的呼聲增大，歐盟大幅增加對(duì)格陵蘭島撥款可能面臨一些成員國(guó)的阻撓。此外，歐盟向格陵蘭島“砸錢(qián)”，還可能被特朗普政府視為“針對(duì)美國(guó)”發(fā)起的挑戰(zhàn)。不排除美國(guó)再次以國(guó)家安全為由，對(duì)歐盟及相關(guān)國(guó)家打壓報(bào)復(fù)。屆時(shí)，美歐圍繞該島的博弈勢(shì)必繼續(xù)加劇。